Ever since it was made public that James Harden wanted out of Houston, Philadelphia fans have been calling for the 76ers to put together a deal to trade Ben Simmons for Harden. In addition to Simmons, it has been reported that the Rockets would also require at least three first round picks in order to get a deal done. Here is why this would be an absolutely terrible move for the 6ers as well as a few alternatives that could potentially take this team to the next level.
Let’s start with the deal itself, an all-star caliber player and 1st Team All-NBA defender, plus 3 first round picks for James Harden. I realize that the picks would most likely be late first rounders but this is still a lot to give up for a player that has never won a championship and, despite playing on stacked teams for most of his career, has one finals appearance to show for it. I’m not going to get into where a Harden/Embiid/Harris team stacks up with the other star studded rosters Harden has been on but I think most would agree it certainly isn’t the best. Honestly, it might not even crack the top 5. The 6ers already traded away their first in 2025, trading three more first round picks is simply too much.
Now, let’s talk about Harden as a player and how he fits with the 6ers. Harden is an incredible talent and the stats absolutely reflect it. He averages 25 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists per game for his career which are Hall of Fame worthy numbers. BUT I would argue that his stats are misleading and very much inflated. I know, how dare I?
James Harden’s teams throughout his career have consistently ranked in the top 10 in offensive possessions per game, many times cracking the top 5. Harden plays fast, and logically more possessions equals more shots and more shots equals more points, assists, and rebounds. He also has one of the highest usage rates in NBA history, currently ranking 8th all time. So, you’ve got a guy consistently getting more possessions per game AND having the ball in his hands more than 99% of the rest of the league? Yea, you better be putting up big numbers. But as I said before, he's never won a championship and has only been to the finals one time. Also, despite his gaudy numbers, I feel like he's disappears late in games, especially in the playoffs (see link). How does that help the 6ers get over the hump? (https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/james-hardens-disappearing-act-in-another-playoff-fourth-quarter-is-so-on-brand-its-painful-to-watch/)
Philly currently ranks 20th in possessions per game and is a team that passes and moves the ball well. It’s also a team that relies heavily on its defense to win games. I get the sense that people think adding Harden to this lineup will automatically mean the 6ers will average 15 more points a game and that nothing will change on defense. But there’s only so many possessions per game and, by association, only so many points that can be scored. Looking at the 6ers top 5 scorers, Joel Embiid shoots 48.1% from the field for his career, Tobias Harris is 47.1%, and Seth Curry is 47.6%, Shake Milton is 45.4% and Ben Simmons is 55.9%. In contrast, James Harden is 44.4% from the field for his career (lowest of the group), and only 36.4% from three (lower than Harris, Curry, and Milton for their careers). Not to mention that the 6ers currently rank 1st in defensive efficiency and our best defender just so happens to be who? Ben Simmons.
So let me get this straight… You want to replace a 1st team All-NBA defender, the most efficient scorer on the team, and a guy who is incredibly unselfish, consistently finding ways to get the ball to our other efficient scorers… with a guy who has one of the highest usage rates in history, a lower shooting percentage than all of the main scorers, and is a step down defensively from the guy you're trading away? And you think this makes the 6ers BETTER?
This trade wouldn’t be adding offense, it would just shift who on the team scores more. If anything, it would hurt both their offensive and defensive efficiencies which isn’t a recipe for winning basketball. People talk a lot about how great the offense was in Golden State the years they won championships. What many people don’t know is two of those three seasons, including the 73-win team, the Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency. Remind me, who did I say was leading the league this year?
Now, let’s talk Simmons. I am so sick of hearing about how we need to trade Simmons, he isn’t doing enough, that he needs to shoot more, he needs to get the line more, he needs to score more, etc. Why!? Are there times when I wish he was a little more aggressive? Sure. But realistically that’s just not his game. WHAT IS SO WRONG WITH THAT? Magic Johnson averaged 19 points per game for his career, Steve Nash averaged 14, John Stockton averaged 13, Jason Kidd averaged 12. We’ve got four Hall of Famers there and Simmons averages more points per game (about 16) than three of them. Why do we want a guy who isn’t a good shooter from distance to shoot more and take shots away from our more efficient shooters? And why do we want a guy who shoots 59% from the free throw line to get to the line more when Embiid, Harris and Curry all shoot above 80% from the stripe?
I realize that people are concerned that this roster looks very similar to the ones that haven’t made the cut the last few years, but I think many forget that those teams were coached by an inept Brett Brown. They now have Doc Rivers, a championship pedigree coach, and Morey, one of the best GMs in the league, calling the shots. The addition of Curry was highly underrated and moving on from Horford was huge in a way many people don’t realize. Not only did the 6ers unload a bad contract and get a solid player back in Danny Green, they freed up a lot of money for next year’s free agency which, if you don’t know, IS FREAKING STACKED. This brings me to the second half of the article, If the 6ers shouldn't trade for Harden, what should they do?
The Dream/Unrealistic Scenario – Klay Thompson
I realize this is impossibly unrealistic, but I want to give you the image of what a championship 6ers team looks like and in a perfect world Klay Thompson is the missing piece. He’s statistically one of the greatest shooters in NBA history, an elite defender, and another highly unselfish player. Can you imagine? Simmons brings the ball up, kicks it to Harris who then feeds Embiid inside. Embiid gets doubled so he kicks out to Curry who makes the extra pass to a wide-open Thompson for three. BANG. Now you’re the point guard coming down the court, staring down two All-NBA defenders in Simmons and Thompson in what would arguably be a top five defensive front court in NBA history. It would be beautiful, I’m tearing up thinking about it. The unfortunate reality is Klay just signed a 5-year extension with Golden State and is currently in the middle of a recovery for a second consecutive season ending injury. Trying to trade for him would probably be too expensive and too risky to become a reality. Hopefully you can see what I’m looking for though.
The Realistic Best-Case Scenario – Kyle Lowry
Earlier I mentioned the stacked free agent class of 2021 and Kyle Lowry happens to be part of that group. Philly may not actually have to wait until free agency to get a deal done. This may be tough because Toronto finished second in the East last year and returned most of their starters, but currently they are 1-3 with their only win being against the lowly Knicks. With Durant healthy in Brooklyn, the Bucks extending Giannis, the Heat and Celtics still potential contenders and the 6ers looking like the real deal with a new coach and supporting cast, the Raptors could start looking to the future if their struggles continue. Lowry will be 35 years old next year, so there may be some questions as to whether it’s worth bringing him back or if he wants to return if the Raptors aren’t legit contenders. Obviously they would want to, he’s spent the last 9 seasons there, but I also think if you threw a young player or two out there with draft picks you might be able to snag him without giving up any major pieces.
Lowry is a good-not-great scorer, he shoots slightly over 42% from the field and 36% from three but he gives the 6ers the one thing I think they are missing from being a championship contender. A cold blooded, clutch shooter. I look at the current 6ers team and love how they are playing but I really don’t know who they go to if they are down two or three points with 20 seconds left on the clock. For all the praise I’ve given Simmons, he is certainly not the guy to hit a big shot and for as good as Embiid is, it is very tough to rely on a big man for that type of play, especially if you need a three. Harris or Curry could have that killer instinct in them, I’ve seen nothing to say they couldn’t hit a big shot, but I also haven’t seen that “mamba mentality” out of them like I’ve seen over the years with Lowry. Plus, he’s an elite defender, which would make him an excellent piece for the system Doc is trying to implement.
Another Very Solid Option – Victor Oladipo
Oladipo could also be a great fit at the two for the 6ers. Another member of the 2021 free agent class, if the Pacers don’t extend him, I could see them trying to move him. As with Lowry, I don’t know what the price would be but for a half year rental I don’t think it would cost any major pieces. The Pacers finished 4th in the East last year but are currently 4-1 so they may end up being buyers at the trade deadline. That being said, looking at their current roster I don’t think anyone would consider them a legit contender when comparing them to the other top teams in the league. It will be interesting to see how they look as the season progresses.
Oladipo is another good-not great shooter, going 44.2% from the field for his career and 35.2% from three. But in 2018 he was All-NBA first team defender and has a track record of hitting big shots. Just like with Lowry, I trust giving the ball to Oladipo in crunch time and letting him take over, again addressing that need. In a vacuum I probably like Oladipo more than Lowry, but he doesn’t have the championship pedigree and the fact that he’s only 28 makes his price tag higher and less likely to be moved this season. But who really knows?
Other Notables – DeMar DeRozan and Chris Paul
I recommend looking at the list of 2021 NBA Free Agents (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2021/) because it’s pretty extensive and there are a lot of options but I wanted to note DeRozan and Paul because they are two of the bigger names. I mention DeRozan because I see him as a piece that could move at the deadline. The Spurs aren’t going anywhere with their current roster and with how stacked the West is they probably need to rebuild if they want to return to relevancy. On the other side, I do not believe Chris Paul will move this year, the Suns are playing well and he is huge part of that, but he is a free agent next year. The reason I mention him is he will be 37 next year and could possibly be a cheaper option while still getting a solid compliment to Simmons, Embiid, and Harris.
I like DeRozan as a player a lot, he’s a solid scorer, 4x all-star and 2x all NBA player. I think adding him would absolutely improve the 6ers, he’s very good at getting to the line where he shoots 82% and is not a guy that “needs the ball” to be effective on offense. My issue with him is he’s not a great defender and at times can even be lackluster. He’s also not a good shooter from three (only 28%). I believe defense has a lot to do with effort so maybe Doc could get more out of him but that’s tough to know. Despite those deficiencies I still like a line up of Simmons, Embiid, Harris, and DeRozan a lot more than I like Harden, Embiid Simmons.
Chris Paul would also be a solid edition to the team, he’s been an All-NBA Defensive player nine times in his career and is a very solid shooter and scorer. My concern here is that he is a true point guard so I don’t know how that would mesh with Simmons’ game. I realize Simmons doesn’t need to play the point on offense, but I do think that is probably the best place for him considering he’s a better distributor than he is a shooter or scorer. I don’t think it would be too difficult for Paul to play the two guard, and honestly having two great passers on the floor like that could open a lot of things up, but I just don’t know. The other potential issue is that he will be 37 years old next year, so his clock is ticking as to how much longer he will be an effective player. As with DeRozan though, I very much prefer the line up of Simmons, Embiid, Harris, and Paul over Harden, Embiid and Harris.
There's probably 10 on that free agency list that could be available at the trade deadline but the moral of the story here is, let’s pump the brakes on trading for Harden or trading away Simmons. Harden doesn’t move the needle for the 6ers as far as being a championship contender and Simmons’ value to this team is way higher than many are giving him credit for. There are plenty of other options our there that could improve this team over the next few years without trading away any key pieces. I know we are all tired of hearing it, but we’ve got a new coach in Rivers, a new GM in Morey and are currently 3 and 1 sooooooooooooooo…TRUST THE PROCESS!