I know I am a few days late with this post but I am still seeing a lot of talk about this trade. People seem to be losing their minds about how good the Padres are going to be and I wanted to bring everyone down to earth before we hand them the World Series trophy. I'll preface this by saying that obviously if Darvish repeats the season he had last year, the Padres will be looking pretty solid with deal (I'm not a total idiot). That being said, I believe last season was a mirage and highly doubt that Darvish will repeat what he was able to accomplish in 2020.
Before I get into Darvish, I want to mention that I haven't looked into the prospects the Cubs received in this deal, other than the fact that the Cubs got four of them. Growing up a Phillies fan, I had the privilege of hearing how good Dom Brown, JP Crawford, Jesse Biddle, Joe Savery, Cornelius Randolph, and Nick Pivetta were going to be. I could probably keep going but I'd rather not since I'm already crying. After all that pain, I've learned to take minor league prospects with a grain of salt until they actually start producing in the big leagues. I also am not putting a ton of stock in Victor Caratini, the catcher that went with Darvish to the Padres. He doesn't really move the needle other than the fact that Darvish likes throwing to him. So for this discussion I am only going to talk about Yu Darvish and Zach Davies, the 27 year old veteran that the Cubs received.
I'll start with Darvish. He was stellar last year, finishing with an 8-3 record and a 2.01 ERA, good enough to finish second in NL Cy Young voting. But let's really examine these stats because last season was very interesting in a few ways. Not only was the season shortened, but in an attempt to limit travel, the MLB structured the scheduled so that it wasn't AL and NL but more East, Central, and West. People aren't really talking about this, but it is a huge factor when looking at Darvish's stats because he only had to face teams in the Central. And I don't know if you're aware of this, but the offense in Central last season was absolute TRASH. Take a look at where they ranked in terms of runs per game...
6th - Chicago White Sox
19th - Minnesota Twins
20th - Detroit Tigers
21st - Chicago Cubs
24th - St. Louis Cardinals
25th - Cleveland Indians
26th - Kansas City Royals
27th - Milwaukee Brewers
28th - Cincinnati Reds
30th - Pittsburgh Pirates
Other than the White Sox, Darvish basically mopped up on the bottom third of the league. Now, Darvish moves to the NL West and joins a division with the Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, and Diamondbacks who ranked 1st, 7th,16th and 18th in runs per game respectively. In Addition to that, MLB will be reverting back to a normal schedule so Darvish will also have to face teams like the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, and Mets who ranked 2nd, 5th, 10th, and 12th last season respectively. Needless to say, Darvish's schedule looks MUCH tougher this year than it did last year.
Another seemingly overlooked circumstance from last season is...THERE WERE NO FANS! We're talking about the same guy who fell apart in the postseason (granted the Astros were cheating) and then spent the next two seasons a shell of his former self. I was unable to dig up the article, but I'm fairly certain he was pitching so bad with the Cubs in 2018 that he requested to only pitch road games to avoid being booed at home. Don't quote me on that, it's just something I remember hearing. Either way, It's pretty clear that the pressure to perform affected him mentally, and that's a pressure that is much more magnified when there's 40,000 fans screaming. So now he's back in the NL West, and despite the evidence that the Astros cheated, you know he's going to hear a plethora of boos when he returns to Dodger Stadium.
The third major factor here is that Yu Darvish will be 34 this season. While the Padres have a very solid rotation, they traded for Darvish expecting a top end starter who's going to be able to give them 175+ innings. Last season was obviously much shorter, only 60 games and Darvish only threw 76 innings. Now a year older and expected to more than double his innings from last year, it's a lot to expect from a player of his age. If you look at his stats from 2020 you could see some fall off even in the shortened season. In July and August (7 starts) Darvish pitched to a fantastic 6-1 record and a 1.47 ERA. In September (5 starts) he had a 2-2 record and a 2.73 ERA. Still very solid, no doubt, but trending in the wrong direction. He also lost took the loss in his only postseason appearance, going 6.2 innings and giving up 2 runs. Solid, but again, a dip from how he started the year.
Now let's talk Davies. Zach Davies, in my opinion, is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. I'm sure that many common fans don't even know who he is. Fortunately for me, I lived in Chicago from 2015-2017 and had the opportunity to watch Davies pitch against the cubs three or four times when he was coming up with the Brewers. I remember my first thought when I first saw him..."I don't know who this guy is but I LOVE his mechanics." Since then he has slowly become one of my favorite pitchers to watch. Davies doesn't throw hard, and isn't really "flashy" which is why I think many overlook him. Bottom line though, he gets guys out. Looking at his statistics he's got a solid 3.79 career ERA, the last two seasons he's 17-11 with a 3.30 ERA, and last season was 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA in a tough NL West Division. That's very solid for a guy that many people are laughing at the Cubs for acquiring. The other positives here? He's only turning 27 this year, so his best years may be ahead of him.
So now let's combine all of this info and look at the contracts. Yu Darvish is an aging pitcher, who pitched under ideal circumstances last season, and is owed $59 million dollars over the next three years. Zach Davies is a pitcher coming into his prime, has shown solid progression, and now gets to pitch in the same NL central that Darvish cleaned up against last year. And guess what? He's only under contract for one more year at $8 million dollars. If the Cubs don't extend him past this season, he could be a prime piece to move at the trade deadline making his value even higher.
The Cub's President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, has said the Yu Darvish trade wasn't motivated by financials and that he saw this as an opportunity to sell high on an aging player entering the back end of his contract. I'm sure many out there don't believe him and see this as a salary dump, but after looking closely at the circumstances, I firmly believe this as well and think Zach Davies will outperform Yu Darvish this upcoming season. Given the fact that the Cubs also received 4 prospects out of what has been called one of baseball's best farm systems, I call that a win. Fly the "W" Chicago.